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Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting?

By Martin Tarlie

White Papers

January 18, 2019

A New Model Suggests 'Yes'

Executive Summary

  • A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
  • Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
  • Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are the views of Martin Tarlie through the period ending January 2019, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
Copyright © 2019 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved.
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