Game theory is a useful framework for modeling aspects of sovereign debt recoveries, given that it models the interactions among debtors and creditors in the lending/borrowing “game.” While there is a long-established set of prece...

Shares in Alphabet have come under a good deal of pressure over the last year as investors process the implications of increasing regulatory scrutiny, culminating in reports this month that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is ...

The duration and magnitude of value’s recent underperformance has caused many to ask once again if value investing is no longer effective. While it is possible that secular shifts have helped to compress value’s premium relative t...

Investors have a tendency to focus on the characteristics of their portfolios almost to the exclusion of other factors that will lead to success or failure for the larger objective that the portfolio is intended to serve. By takin...

Our Q1 valuation update shows that emerging external and local market debt looks to be on the cusp of neutral to cheap.

This month marks the two year anniversary since the launch of the Climate Change strategy, and in that time we have learned a lot about how investors think about incorporating its benefits into their overall portfolios. The paper ...

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) seems to provoke a visceral reaction amongst the ‘mind guards’ of standard economics. Taking the opposite side of the debate, James Montier notes that in his experience, MMT provides a much more accura...

A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble. Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundament...