White Papers | 22 March 2017

The Deep Causes of Secular Stagnation and the Rise of Populism

Executive Summary

In a companion paper, “Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast,” we present evidence that asset markets are generally priced for “secular stagnation,” and argue that this requires a number of extreme assumptions on the part of investors. However, we didn’t really explore the root causes and consequences of secular stagnation in that paper. We remedy that with this paper, which is a deep dive into the murky world of secular stagnation, its sources, and its impact.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed are the views of James Montier and Philip Pilkington through the period ending March 2017, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
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